Purple Lunches

As Election Day draws near, the polls show a toss up for the new President. Despite my warnings to friends and reminders on social media, many voters have already decided for whom they will vote.  The problem with that is the brain will limit new information that could cause a change of preference.  "Confirmation bias" is making up one's mind first; then scanning for data to justify.

It's still too early to think in black and white.  A better way is to "think gray."  This means to not make up one's mind until necessary...and that is not until the day before Election Day.   Keeping an open mind allows data, including contradictory info, to be factored in if it is true.

My advice is to break out of partisanship and a good way to do that is to have a civil discussion with someone for the other candidate.  If you're Blue, invite a Red to lunch and vice versa.  Make it a purple lunch.  State your case for your candidate then listen, LISTEN, to the counter arguments across the table.  You might be surprised that you have overlooked salient facts.  Or perhaps your priorities have shifted since you made your (too soon) candidate choice.

The most important reason to do this, though, is because of post-election.  Half the country will be disappointed in who's elected.  The other half will have a brief spurt of euphoria and triumph, but it will be washed away as the new person in the Oval Office does not honor campaign promises.  Here is the main point: After the election, it will take all of us to prolong the American experiment.  We have to learn to get along with people with whom we disagree.  The strength of democracy is diversity with unity.  E Pluribus Unum.  "From many, we are one."  Get started now. #purplelunch

Hot Shots

One of the most bizarre stories of the last year was the shooting near San Jose California.  It wasn’t a random act of violence; not gang war; not a prank; not Joe Six Pack loosening off a few rounds.  A sharpshooter with knowledge of how a major electrical substation works sneaks into the sensitive area during the dead of night and cuts fiber cables to knock out 911 and cell phone service. Then, he or she or they take 120 shots, over 20 minutes, from a high-powered rifle to "methodically" make transformers overheat and shut down, knocking out the substation.  As soon as police come near the sight, the gunmen slip away and are never caught.  This happened April 16, 2013 at the Pacific Gas & Electric Company's Metcalf power substation.  News of this event was kept out of the press for many months as various law enforcement agencies investigated.  The damage was severe.  It took 27 days and $16 million to repair the 17 transformers and bring the substation back online.  While it was out, the PG&E grid picked up the slack.

Experts from the U.S. Navy’s Dahlgren Surface Warfare Center in Virginia were flown in after the attack.  After walking the site with FBI agents, the military experts said the attack looked to be a coordinated “military style” professional job.

Jon Wellinghoff, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at the time of the attack, calls it "the most significant incident of domestic terrorism involving the grid that has ever occurred" in the U.S., according to the Journal.

The main point for investors is what Mark Johnson, a former PG&E official, told the Wall Street Journal.  This could be a "dress rehearsal" for a major terrorist attack.

"Critical infrastructure are things we rely on as a country in order to function: electric grid, air traffic control, water system, stock market.  And if they go down, it could potentially be catastrophic" said Michael McNerney, a security consultant with Delta Risk.

Manage for Risk, NOT Performance

Placing hard earned savings into financial markets is not for amateurs, yet due to 401k plans there are millions of non-professionals that do exactly that.  Adding money on a regular basis for a time horizon many years in the future reduces some of the anxiety.  Suppose you have accumulated a lot of money, need to invest it, but do not have a long time to either spend or rebuild it in case of market crashes.  This is when investment philosophy should be to "manage the risk  and not worry about the performance."

This is a difficult concept because it is not in the media or advocated by large companies like mutual funds or brokerage houses.  Risk management calls for constant attention to market risk and being active to make changes.  The more popularly promoted investment philosophies are "buy and hold" or "passive" techniques like asset allocation or modern portfolio theory because they are less labor intensive for those whom you entrust your money.

Before your eyes cross and you give up on this counter-intuitive perspective, look at an easy example like owning a house.  After the purchase of a house, the new owner moves in, decorates, landscapes, barbeques in the back yard, etc.  Unbeknownst to the homeowner is that his/her investment in this house changes value every day.  Factors that influence home prices, or "comps," are numerous.  For example, a government can increase property taxes on certain types of real estate.  A sinkhole can happen.  If zoning laws are lax, your neighbor can raise goats or chickens.  The noise and smells are now something you will have to live with; and, in time, you might adjust.  But try selling the house and having a parade of potential buyers come through constantly sniffing and asking, "What's that smell?" or "What's making that clucking sound?"

Good things can also happen while you are in your house.  A new hospital could be built nearby and now the medical professionals want to move into your neighborhood to reduce their commute or response time. 

The point is that negative and positive forces are constantly in play and the homeowner has no control over them.  The seller (or buyer) can only control one variable: When to buy or sell.  The flip side of that (pun intended) is to invest in a house just to make money quickly.  However, when thinking through all the factors that will influence the other side of your transaction, you should come to the conclusion that profit or loss is out of your control, except for your decision on when to buy and sell.

In stock investing there are even more forces at work than owning a house, such as currency risk.  It can be an expensive lesson to see your portfolio sink in value when an unforeseen event occurs.  Instead, what investors could focus on is making the low risk purchase, watch it like a hawk knowing there is some volatility expected, and when the risk goes up, get out.  And then start the process over with another stock (or bond, or stock mutual fund, etc.).

Why Take Mission Trips

I just returned from a "mission trip" to Liberia in Western Africa.  It was a trip that I would not have considered a few years ago.  After all, why leave comfort / familiar for sacrifice / adventure?  The reason seems simple to me now, but it was a spiritual journey ~ a pilgrimage ~ that took many steps. 

I am a follower of Jesus Christ.  In my foundation of learning to apply my new faith, I engaged in spiritual disciplines of prayer, community and reading the Bible. I went to church where those gifted in teaching made the less familiar passages of holy scripture become both interesting and relevant to faith building.  I was in that phase of "growth" for quite a long time, though; seemingly without much progress of transformation.  In hindsight, I know that was because I seldom left comfort / familiar; and without much risk, there was little reward.  That changed when I chose to direct my pilgrimage steps toward more sacrifice / adventure.  It was on those pilgrimage segments that I became a much better follower and the main reason was the fear of the unknown caused me to want to follow even closer to Jesus for His presence and protection.

There are huge advantages on mission trips for Christ followers.

One is that we line up prayer supporters before the trip.  This is odd behavior for Christ followers since prayer is powerful and should be part of our everyday lives.  Yet, living in comfort / familiar dulls the senses to the spiritual warfare that rages, whether we are in developed countries or less developed ones. The enemy uses different tactics in each, but I spiritually prepare better for time spent in LDCs than the USA.

Two is that I wake up each day on a misison trip with the thought process: "I am here because God wants to do something through me and / or to me."  I have a sense of wonder and feel like I am walking behind Jesus in the very footsteps He just made just for me.  I expect miracles.  I hate to admit that is not my mindset when I wake up in my own bed and face a familar routine; a stateside regimen that has little adventure.  (Fun, yes; leisure, yes; purpose, yes; adventure...not so much).

Another advantage is being on a mission team.  For the above reasons and more, working together with people who are different but equally commited to the same goal not only builds community but also an esprit de corps that gets us through hardships...but there weren't really that many hardships, but there could have been ~ otherwise, there is no adventure.

There are more advantages, but the final one I want to mention is the feeling I have on mission trips of being more controlled by the Holy Spirit.  Because of the prayer support and different mindset, I accept things not going as planned on the mission field as my-plans-being-trumped-by-God's-better-plan.  At home, I like control.  If traffic is stopped for any reason, I take a different path to take to reach my desination / goal.  MY goal.  I forget to ask God, "What is the reason You have for me to be blocked from my goal.  Is it because you have a better plan?"

These and a few other reasons are why I went to Liberia.  I knew of the Liberians' history; of the recent war that dicimated the country. My Liberian friend Eric told me about his hardships from the war (physical abuse, separation from family, life in a refugee camp, etc.) http://canintl.org/  I developed an interest in the Liberian church taking the lead in rebuilding the country.  I was drawn to Eric's vision for rebuilding and I knew he had the leadership skills to make that happen.  I wanted to be part of a nation recovering.  Especially a nation that rose up with freed African slaves who left USA to return to their ancestors' home for the purpose of spreading the good news that Jesus had died for them as well as for their slave masters.  Liberia and the American Colonization Society was to be the light in the "dark continent." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Colonization_Society

The Liberians speak English, which is a good for mission trippers because no interpretation / translation is necessary.  We could converse with them as if we had run into them at our neighborhood coffee shop.  We wanted to help and they were grateful for our help, but it was also refreshing to be with people who had a work ethic and memory of what life was like before the war.  They wanted to get back to their "normal" where kids went to school and parents farmed, ranched or were in business.  I have been to other places in the world where the nationals had lived under dictators and although recently freed from tyranny, the current generation had no ideals toward work or education.  God loves them too and I am thankful that others to go there.  However, I felt a better match for my skill and passion to plant businesses in places like Liberia.  The country has many resources.  That helps major international corporations (like harvesting rubber for tires), but it does not help very many of the citizens. More small business and a few new large businesses will be the key to rebuilding.  The salaries of the workers and how the government uses the taxes will get the roads rebuilt, an honest police force, clean water, sanitation, and all the other services a government should provide.

Are you thinking of a mission trip?  If so, there is no need to jump to the conclusion you should go to Africa or Haiti.  There is a need in your own backyard if you are willing to leave comfort / familar in search of adventure.  There are children who need tutoring within a mile of where you live.  Volunteering to serve one's own neighbors is the best place place for beginning of your own pilgrimage, i.e., mission trip.  For most, that will be sufficient.  For a few readers, you will not find a good fit for your challenge needs and skill set close by, so take a plane to a less developed country (LDC) and spread God's love and be an ambassador to raise the international image for America ~ a country that was blessed in order to be a blessing to others.

follow me on Twitter for the adventure of the spiritual journey and investments

@MarcoPoleaux

Worldview Affects One's Recommendations

After being on the receiving end of some bad recommendations and referrals, here is how I will challenge any product, service, etc:

First, make sure you have researched the issue.
Example, "You need to go eat the burgers at So-and-So; they're the best in town."
Me, "Really; have you tried every burger in town before forming that opinion?"

Second, you must disclose any vested interest.
"Always buy your tires at Joe's."
"Isn't Joe your brother-in-law?"

Third, admit it is possible that just because it was a positive experience for you doesn't mean it will be for me.
"Public schools are ruining our kids!"
"Your kids are snobs and they've been in parochial schools, right?"

Fourth, is it your opinion or are you just parroting someone else's?
"So-and-So extremist group is trying to take over America!"
"Have you been watching [only] Fox News?"

And fifth, take the time to get to know me and mine before making bold claims.
"Your family will love a vacation at So-and-So."
"How much time have you spent getting to know my family?"

At a recent visit to the WWII Museum in New Orleans, I was struck by this quote:

“American ‘occupation’ was carried out with remarkable success. It helped beyond measure that everyone had the same ultimate objective.”

I wonder if the American church could take a lesson here. Keep the "ultimate objective" in view and not the petty things.

On a lighter note, the exhibit also said that Brits thought of the American GIs as “Over paid, oversexed and over here!”